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Write a few hundred words on how you can tell what is happening with inflation currently from the above article, particularly, "the difference between [the] five-year Treasury and TIPS yields...[and what] more [is] going on below the surface."

Rare Bond Market Inversisa Signals Short-Live Boost tolallation Markets are signaling that inflation is coming and investors are getting ready Treasury yields are rising and stock market investees are starting to shin from high-growth tech companies toward companies like airlines that will benefit from an economic sebound. But one comer of the Treasury market suggests that a coming bump in US Inflation will run out of steam swiftly. This has implications for fans of gold or cryptocurrencies who fiet about runaway inflation. Investors' inflation expectations can be seen in Treasury markets by looking at the difference between the yields on ordinary Treasurys and the yields on inflation protected Treasurys, known as TIPS. This difference is called the break-eventate The difference between five-year Treasury and TIPS yields shows break-even inflation expectations have risen to nearly 2.4% in recent dayshe highest level since May 2011 implying inflation is set to pick up Markets A pre-markets primer packed with news, trends and ideas. Plus, up-to-the-minute market data But there is more going on below the surface Shortes-term beak-even rates are higher than longer-term ones, an extremely rare situatice-known as an inversion of the break-even curve. This forecasts a spike in inflation that the fall away. For instance, konger-term inflation expectations are lower: 10-year break-even rates are 2.15% and 30-year rates are 2.1%. Inflation expectations shown in the gap between Treasury yields and real yields 35-year 1-year 30-year Goldman Sachs estimates Another view is that the inversion in break-even rates might signal expectations that the Federal Reserve contrary to promiseswill react swiftly to cap inflation and keep it close to its 256 target "It may signal that we are getting closer to the first test of the Fed's commitment to average inflation targeting and not tightening policy until they see the whites in the eyes of inflatice," said Duvid Riley, chief investment strategist at BlueBay Asset Management Gap between inflation expectations at different Treasury maturities Difference between to-year and 5-year inflation expectations Difference between 30-year and 5-year inflation excectations DS Ter The five-year rate hasn't been above the 10-year since July 2005, according to FactSet and the gap between the two has never been as great as it was on Wednesday Interpretations for the momaly vary. One possibility is that the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package Washington will vote on this week will bring only short-term benefits and only a short-lived bump to inflation. More than three-quarters of the funds likely to be approved will be spent on stimulus checks and other income support, according to This idea is supported by the fact that yields on 10-year TIPSnown as "real" yields because they take into account inflation expectations have risen as 10-year beak-even rates have fallen over the past two weeks. That combination, Mr. Riley said, typically signals either a weaker growth outlook, which seems unlikely, or a higher likelihood of rate rises from the Fed Another support for this view: Fed-funds futures put an 115chance on the central bank lifting interest rates by a quarter of a percent in September, up from a zeso chance just a Athird view is that the market is simply getting it wrong and underpricing the effect of government stimulus spending That could come in the form of an infrastructure spending package to be agreed upon later this year after the initial womavirus relief. Alberto Gallo, head of global credit strategies at Algeheis Investments, think there could be a longer spell of healthy inflation if investments are made in ways that boost US productivity growth. But to truly work this would also require higher corporate taxes and better antitrust regulation to improve competition in the U.S., he says. There is also still a lingering concern about the coctomie pain that a cycle of rising interest rates would cause in a world saddled with even more debt than households companies and governments were bearing before Covid-19 struck. Higher rates divert more income into del repayments, slowing spending on other things and hurting conomic activity The last time there was a series of rate rises from the Fed it ended with a sharp sellotin stocks and riskier det at the end of 2018 as investors weered the central bank was going agan tamil in Rare Bond Market Inversisa Signals Short-Live Boost tolallation Markets are signaling that inflation is coming and investors are getting ready Treasury yields are rising and stock market investees are starting to shin from high-growth tech companies toward companies like airlines that will benefit from an economic sebound. But one comer of the Treasury market suggests that a coming bump in US Inflation will run out of steam swiftly. This has implications for fans of gold or cryptocurrencies who fiet about runaway inflation. Investors' inflation expectations can be seen in Treasury markets by looking at the difference between the yields on ordinary Treasurys and the yields on inflation protected Treasurys, known as TIPS. This difference is called the break-eventate The difference between five-year Treasury and TIPS yields shows break-even inflation expectations have risen to nearly 2.4% in recent dayshe highest level since May 2011 implying inflation is set to pick up Markets A pre-markets primer packed with news, trends and ideas. Plus, up-to-the-minute market data But there is more going on below the surface Shortes-term beak-even rates are higher than longer-term ones, an extremely rare situatice-known as an inversion of the break-even curve. This forecasts a spike in inflation that the fall away. For instance, konger-term inflation expectations are lower: 10-year break-even rates are 2.15% and 30-year rates are 2.1%. Inflation expectations shown in the gap between Treasury yields and real yields 35-year 1-year 30-year Goldman Sachs estimates Another view is that the inversion in break-even rates might signal expectations that the Federal Reserve contrary to promiseswill react swiftly to cap inflation and keep it close to its 256 target "It may signal that we are getting closer to the first test of the Fed's commitment to average inflation targeting and not tightening policy until they see the whites in the eyes of inflatice," said Duvid Riley, chief investment strategist at BlueBay Asset Management Gap between inflation expectations at different Treasury maturities Difference between to-year and 5-year inflation expectations Difference between 30-year and 5-year inflation excectations DS Ter The five-year rate hasn't been above the 10-year since July 2005, according to FactSet and the gap between the two has never been as great as it was on Wednesday Interpretations for the momaly vary. One possibility is that the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package Washington will vote on this week will bring only short-term benefits and only a short-lived bump to inflation. More than three-quarters of the funds likely to be approved will be spent on stimulus checks and other income support, according to This idea is supported by the fact that yields on 10-year TIPSnown as "real" yields because they take into account inflation expectations have risen as 10-year beak-even rates have fallen over the past two weeks. That combination, Mr. Riley said, typically signals either a weaker growth outlook, which seems unlikely, or a higher likelihood of rate rises from the Fed Another support for this view: Fed-funds futures put an 115chance on the central bank lifting interest rates by a quarter of a percent in September, up from a zeso chance just a Athird view is that the market is simply getting it wrong and underpricing the effect of government stimulus spending That could come in the form of an infrastructure spending package to be agreed upon later this year after the initial womavirus relief. Alberto Gallo, head of global credit strategies at Algeheis Investments, think there could be a longer spell of healthy inflation if investments are made in ways that boost US productivity growth. But to truly work this would also require higher corporate taxes and better antitrust regulation to improve competition in the U.S., he says. There is also still a lingering concern about the coctomie pain that a cycle of rising interest rates would cause in a world saddled with even more debt than households companies and governments were bearing before Covid-19 struck. Higher rates divert more income into del repayments, slowing spending on other things and hurting conomic activity The last time there was a series of rate rises from the Fed it ended with a sharp sellotin stocks and riskier det at the end of 2018 as investors weered the central bank was going agan tamil in

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