A public health department is evaluating the possible causes fora vaccine shortage during a major flu outbreak. The probability ofa flu outbreak is estimated to be 10%. The department uses twosuppliers, Vendor A and Vendor B. The following is their analysisof the leading causes for a shortage:
- Each vendor has a 5% chance they could run short of vaccine,since they must supply health departments in other regions duringthe outbreak.
- Even if vendors could supply enough vaccine, there is a 10%chance that shipping of the vaccine could be disrupted due topandemonium during the outbreak.
- Given the above information, construct a fault-tree with thetop event being a flu vaccine shortage (use only AND and ORgates).
- Estimate the probability of a flu vaccine shortage.
