Bayes' Theorem- drug screening
The national flufferball association decides to implement a drugscreening procedure to test its athletes for illegal performanceenhancing drugs. 3% of the professional flufferball playersactually use performance enhancing drugs. A test for the drugs hasa false positive rate of 2% and a false negative rate of 4%. Inother words, a person who does not take the drugs will testpositive with probability 0.02. A person who does take the drugswill test negative with probability 0.04. A randomly selectedplayer is tested and tests positive. What is the probability thatshe really does take performance enhancing drugs?
