Consider an epidemic disease in a country;
The daily emergence of the disease is given in the table below.The first day is the 18th of March, and the last day of the recordis the 7th of May. The record is five days apart. There are norecords either earlier or later than the dates, or between thedates.
Dates | Daily Emergence of the Epidemic (Ep(t)) |
18.03.2020 | 93*x |
23.03.2020 | 293*x |
28.03.2020 | 1704*x |
02.04.2020 | 2456*x |
07.04.2020 | 3892*x |
12.04.2020 | 4789*x |
17.04.2020 | 4353*x |
22.04.2020 | 3083*x |
27.04.2020 | 2131*x |
02.05.2020 | 1983*x |
07.05.2020 | 1380*x |
x=0.83.
a) draw a graphic/chart for daily emergence of the epidemicdisease, by hand or by using a program,
b) calculate emergence speed of the disease (rate of change(dEp/dt), Ο(h2 error level)) for each date anddraw a graphic for it.
c) calculate the rate of change of the speed (acceleration ofthe epidemic (d2Ep/dt2),Ο(h2 error level)) for each date and make agraphic, also.
d) what is the total number of infected people during the timeperiod. (use at least two solution techniques and discuss)
e) what is the number of infected people on the 31stof March.
f) what is going to be the number of infected people on the9th of May.
