Consider the following gasoline sales time series. If needed,
round your answers to two-decimal digits.
Week
Sales (1,000s...
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Consider the following gasoline sales time series. If needed,round your answers to two-decimal digits.
Week
Sales (1,000s of gallons)
1
18
2
22
3
15
4
24
5
18
6
15
7
21
8
19
9
21
10
20
11
16
12
22
(a)
Show the exponential smoothing forecasts using ? = 0.1, and ? =0.2.
Exponential Smoothing
Week
? = 0.1
? = 0.2
13
(b)
Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefera smoothing constant of ? = 0.1 smoothing constant provides themore accurate forecast, with an overall MSE of
(c)
Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure ofaccuracy? An a= 0.1 smoothing constant provides the more accurateforecast, with an overall MAE of
(d)
What are the results if MAPE is used? An a=0.1 smoothingconstant provides the more accurate forecast, with an overall MAPEof =
Answer & Explanation
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4.0 Ratings (771 Votes)
Let shows the actual value for year t andshows the forecasted value of year t So exponential smoothingforecast formula isaFollowing table shows the forecasted values for a 01 and a02WeekSales 1000s of gallons YtFt alpha01Ft alpha0211818182221818315184188424180618045181865192361518591898721182318188191851187492118561879102018819231116189219381222186318713189722407bFollowing table shows the
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