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Demand data on "Service Orders" for a particular service enterprise for the previous 12 months is...

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Basic Math

Demand data on "Service Orders" for a particular serviceenterprise for the previous 12 months is as follows: 550, 652, 673,707, 725, 752, 780, 797, 815, 836, 850, and 872. Problem 3b) Usethe following three methods and prepare three forecasting tableswith errors for the given demand data. • a 3-month Weighted MovingAverage with the weights 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1 with the maximum weightgoing for the most recent data point into the past • ExponentialSmoothing with smoothing constant = 0.9 • Linear TrendRegression

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4.3 Ratings (685 Votes)

a)

Month Service order 3 month Weighted average
1 550
2 652
3 673
4 707 654.4
5 725 691.3
6 752 714.4
7 780 739.4
8 797 766.1
9 815 787.4
10 836 806.1
11 850 825.8
12 872 842.3

b) Exponential smoothing method

Month Service order Exponential smoothing
1 550 550
2 652 550
3 673 641.8
4 707 669.88
5 725 703.288
6 752 722.8288
7 780 749.08288
8 797 776.908288
9 815 794.990829
10 836 812.999083
11 850 833.699908
12 872 848.369991

c) Linear trend

Sum of X = 78
Sum of Y = 9009
Mean X = 6.5
Mean Y = 750.75
Sum of squares (SSX) = 143
Sum of products (SP) = 2997.5

Regression Equation = ? = bX + a

b = SP/SSX = 2997.5/143 = 20.96154

a = MY - bMX = 750.75 - (20.96*6.5) = 614.5

? = 20.96154X + 614.5

Month Service order Linear trend
1 550 635.46154
2 652 656.42308
3 673 677.38462
4 707 698.34616
5 725 719.3077
6 752 740.26924
7 780 761.23078
8 797 782.19232
9 815 803.15386
10 836 824.1154
11 850 845.07694
12 872 866.03848

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