Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Assume following are forecasts of Abercrombie & Fitch's...
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Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Assume following are forecasts of Abercrombie & Fitch's sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating assets (NOA) as of January 29, 2011.
Reported
Horizon Period
(In millions)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Terminal Period
Sales
$ 3,750
$ 4,500
$ 5,400
$ 6,480
$ 7,776
$ 7,853
NOPAT
464
539
654
794
982
960
NOA
1,320
1,602
1,933
2,332
2,791
2,802
Answer the following requirements assuming a discount rate (WACC) of 13.3%, a terminal period growth rate of 1%, common shares outstanding of 86.2 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $(261) million (negative NNO reflects net nonoperating assets such as investments rather than net obligations). (a) Estimate the value of a share of Abercrombie & Fitch common stock using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model as of January 29, 2011.
Rounding instructions:
Round answers to the nearest whole number unless noted otherwise.
Use your rounded answers for subsequent calculations.
Do not use negative signs with any of your answers.
Reported
Horizon Period
(In millions)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Terminal Period
Increase in NOA
Answer
Answer
Answer
Answer
Answer
FCFF (NOPAT - Increase in NOA)
Answer
Answer
Answer
Answer
Answer
Discount factor [1 / (1 + rw)t ]
(round to 5 decimal places)
Answer
Answer
Answer
Answer
Present value of horizon FCFF
Answer
Answer
Answer
Answer
present value of horizon FCFF
Answer
Present value of terminal FCFF
Answer
Total firm value
Answer
NNO
Answer
Firm equity value
Answer
Shares outstanding (millions)
Answer
(round one decimal place)
Stock price per share
Answer
(round two decimal places)
(b) Assume Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) stock closed at $77.56 on March 2, 2011. How does your valuation estimate compare with this closing price? What do you believe are some reasons for the difference?
Our stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is undervalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.
Stock prices are a function of many factors. It is impossible to speculate on the reasons for the difference.
Our stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is overvalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more pessimistic forecasts or a higher discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.
Our stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is overvalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.
Answer & Explanation
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