FOR1. Open file Nuclear Power.Select data for Canada. Address the followingquestions.
a. Provide a plot of the data over timein the space below. (2 pts)
[plot here]
b. Choose an appropriate forecastingmodel and forecast for the next 3 periods (provide forecast in thetable below). Explain model selection approach. (8 pts)
Period | Forecast |
2007 | |
2008 | |
2009 | |
c. Using the same data, forecast thenext 3 periods in the time series using the 5-period moving averageand indicate the values below. (3 pts)
Period | Forecast |
2007 | |
2008 | |
2009 | |
d. Using the same data, forecast forthe next 3 periods in the time series using the single exponentialsmoothing technique with a smoothing constant of 0.3 and indicatethe values below. (3 pts)
Period | Forecast |
2007 | |
2008 | |
2009 | |
e. Compare results from models b, c and d. Which forecast modeldo you recommend to use for the next 3 periods? Justify yourrecommendation (6 pts)
DATA:
| Nuclear ElectricPower Production (Billion KWH) |
| | | | |
| Year | US | Canada | France | |
| 1980 | 251.12 | 35.88 | 63.42 | |
| 1981 | 272.67 | 37.8 | 99.24 | |
| 1982 | 282.77 | 36.17 | 102.63 | |
| 1983 | 293.68 | 46.22 | 135.99 | |
| 1984 | 327.63 | 49.26 | 180.47 | |
| 1985 | 383.69 | 57.1 | 211.19 | |
| 1986 | 414.04 | 67.23 | 239.56 | |
| 1987 | 455.27 | 72.89 | 249.27 | |
| 1988 | 526.97 | 78.18 | 260.29 | |
| 1989 | 529.35 | 75.35 | 288.72 | |
| 1990 | 576.86 | 69.24 | 298.38 | |
| 1991 | 612.57 | 80.68 | 314.77 | |
| 1992 | 618.78 | 76.55 | 321.52 | |
| 1993 | 610.29 | 90.08 | 349.78 | |
| 1994 | 640.44 | 102.44 | 341.98 | |
| 1995 | 673.4 | 92.95 | 358.37 | |
| 1996 | 674.73 | 88.13 | 377.47 | |
| 1997 | 628.64 | 77.86 | 375.71 | |
| 1998 | 673.7 | 67.74 | 368.59 | |
| 1999 | 728.25 | 69.82 | 374.53 | |
| 2000 | 753.89 | 69.16 | 394.4 | |
| 2001 | 768.83 | 72.86 | 400.02 | |
| 2002 | 780.06 | 71.75 | 414.92 | |
| 2003 | 763.73 | 71.15 | 419.02 | |
| 2004 | 788.53 | 85.87 | 425.83 | |
| 2005 | 781.99 | 87.44 | 428.95 | |
| 2006 | 787.22 | 93.07 | 427.68 | |
