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if I was given 3 scenarios( predication) about market view of the S&P 500 fo3...

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Finance

if I was given 3 scenarios( predication) about market view of the S&P 500 fo3 2020-2021

0.5 Bull (20%) return, 0.3 Neutral (10%) return, 0.2 Bear (-20% )

how can I update this market view to match the actual market returns for last year and predict next year market return 2021-2022

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