In Pennsylvania, 6,165,478 people voted in the election. Trumpreceived 48.18% of the vote and Clinton recieved 47.46%. Thisdoesn't add up to 100% because other candidates received votes. Alltogether these other candidates received 100% - 48.18% - 47.46% =4.36% of the vote.
Suppose we could select one person at random from the 6+ millionvoters in PA (note: PA is the common abbreviation forPennsylvania). We are interested in the chance that we'd choose aTrump, Clinton, or Other voter.
Below is a probability table for the choice:
Voted for | Trump | Clinton | Other |
|---|
| Probability | 0.4818 | 0.4746 | 0.0436 |
| Number of people | 2,970,733 | 2,926,441 | 268,304 |
Suppose we take a simple random sample of ?=1500 n = 1500 votersfrom the 6+ million voters in PA. What is the expected number ofTrump voters? What is the expected number of Clinton voters? Toanswer these questions, let ?1 T 1 be 1 if the first voter chosenfor the sample voted for Trump and 0 if they voted for Clinton oranother candidate. Let ?2 T 2 be 1 if the second voter chosen forthe sample voted for Trump and 0 if they voted for Clinton oranother candidate, and so on. Let's start with some very basicquestions. Find: ?(?1000=1) P ( T 1000 = 1 ) ?(?1000=0) P ( T 1000= 0 ) ?(?17) E ( T 17 )
