Instructions:
1. Get 4 coins, any country, any value, as long as it is2-sided with heads on one side and tails on the other.
2. Without actually flipping the coins, write down what youthink would be the subjective probabilities of the followingsequences:
A. P(THHT) B. P(TTTT) C. P(THTT)
A subjective probability is a probability measurement based onyour opinion or judgment or historical facts or current eventswithout conducting an experiment or using any mathematical theoriesfor computing probability.
2. Perform an experiment of tossing the 4 coins 30 times,recording the sequence of your 30 outcomes in a spreadsheet/table,e.g.
Toss #: Sequence
1 : HTTH
2 :TTTT
... : ....
30 :HTHT
3. Based on your outcomes, determine the number of times yougot the following sequences in your N= 30 tosses:
A. n(THHT) B. n(TTTT) C. n(THTT)
4. Using your answer in #3 and the formular P = n/N, computethe experimental (empirical) probabilities of the followingsequences:
A. P(THHT) B. P(TTTT) C. P(THTT)
5. Construct a tree-diagram based on equally likely events fortossing one coin 4 times.
6. Based on your tree-diagram, compute the theoreticalprobability of the following sequences:
A. P(THHT) B. P(TTTT) C. P(THTT)
7. Create a spreadsheet/table that allows for ease incomparing your record of the subjective, experimental andtheoretical probabilities for the three sequences, THHT, TTTT,THTT.
8) Is it okay for your subjective, experimental andtheoretical values for each sequence to be equal or different.Justify your answer.
