Mumbai is playing Nagpur in the last game of the season. Mumbai is trailing Nagpur...
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Mumbai is playing Nagpur in the last game of the season. Mumbai is trailing Nagpur 21 to 20 , Mumbai can either go for two points and win or go for one point to send the game into overtime. The championship will be determined by the outcome of this game. If Mumbai wins, they will go to the National level, with a payoif of 9200000; if they lose, they will go to the State level, with a payoff of 1500000. If Mumbai goes for two points, there is a 30% chance they will be successful and win (and a 70% chance they will fail and lose). If they go for one point, there is a 0.98 probability of success and a tie and a 0.02 probability of fallure. if they tie, they will play overtime, in which Mumbal belleves they have only a 20% chance of winning because of fatigue. (a) Use decision-tree analysis to determine if Mumbai should go for one point or two points. [3] (b) What would Mumbai's probability of winning the game in overtime have to be to make Mumbal incifferent between going for one point or tvo points? [3]
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Mumbai is playing Nagpur in the last game of the season. Mumbai is trailing Nagpur 21 to 20 , Mumbai can either go for two points and win or go for one point to send the game into overtime. The championship will be determined by the outcome of this game. If Mumbai wins, they will go to the National level, with a payoif of 9200000; if they lose, they will go to the State level, with a payoff of 1500000. If Mumbai goes for two points, there is a 30% chance they will be successful and win (and a 70% chance they will fail and lose). If they go for one point, there is a 0.98 probability of success and a tie and a 0.02 probability of fallure. if they tie, they will play overtime, in which Mumbal belleves they have only a 20% chance of winning because of fatigue. (a) Use decision-tree analysis to determine if Mumbai should go for one point or two points. [3] (b) What would Mumbai's probability of winning the game in overtime have to be to make Mumbal incifferent between going for one point or tvo points? [3] 