Napoleon is contemplating four institutions of higher learningas options for a Master’s in Business Administration. Eachuniversity has strong and weak points and the demand for MBAgraduates is uncertain. The availability of jobs, student loans,and financial support will have a significant impact on Napoleon’sultimate decision. Vanderbilt and Seattle University havecomparatively high tuition, which would necessitate Napoleon takeout student loans resulting in possibly substantial student loandebt. In a tight market, degrees with that cachet might spell thedifference between a hefty paycheck and a piddling unemploymentcheck. Northeastern State University and Texas Tech University holdthe advantage of comparatively low tuition but a more regionalappeal in a tight job market. Napoleon gathers his advisory councilof Jim and Pedro to assist with the decision. Together theyforecast three possible scenarios for the job market andinstitutional success and predict annual cash flows associated withan MBA from each institution. All cash flows in the table are inthousands of dollars.
School | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 |
Vanderbilt | 95 | 20 | -10 |
Texas Tech | 55 | 60 | 60 |
Seattle | 90 | 10 | 80 |
Northeastern State | 65 | 50 | 6 |
Suppose that the likelihood for each of scenarios 1 through 3 is0.3, 0.4, and 0.3, respectively. What is the optimal decision underthe EVM criterion?
