Problem Details:
A major beverage company needs forecasts of sales for next year.Quarterly sales data for the previous 13 years can be found in the“Beverage_Sales” worksheet of the Excel file titled Group Case #2Data.
Requirements (You will NOT follow the PLAN-DO-REPORTalgorithm. Address/answer all requirements in the ordergiven.):
1. (2 points) Create a Time Series plot of the sales data.Briefly describe what you see in the plot.
2. (5 points) Develop a model to forecast sales for the fourquarters of year 14.
3. (2 points) Forecast sales for the four quarters of year14.
4. (4 points) Determine the MSE, MAD, MAPE for the model youdeveloped in requirement #2. Using this information and anyrelevant information from the results of requirement #2, brieflydiscuss how accurate you think the forecasts for year 14 are.
Data:
| Year | Quarter | Sales |
| 1 | Q1 | 1807.37 |
| 1 | Q2 | 2355.32 |
| 1 | Q3 | 2591.83 |
| 1 | Q4 | 2236.39 |
| 2 | Q1 | 1549.14 |
| 2 | Q2 | 2105.79 |
| 2 | Q3 | 2041.32 |
| 2 | Q4 | 2021.01 |
| 3 | Q1 | 1870.46 |
| 3 | Q2 | 2390.56 |
| 3 | Q3 | 2198.03 |
| 3 | Q4 | 2046.83 |
| 4 | Q1 | 1934.19 |
| 4 | Q2 | 2406.41 |
| 4 | Q3 | 2249.06 |
| 4 | Q4 | 2211.56 |
| 5 | Q1 | 2237.05 |
| 5 | Q2 | 2856.43 |
| 5 | Q3 | 2799.57 |
| 5 | Q4 | 2645.33 |
| 6 | Q1 | 2563.59 |
| 6 | Q2 | 3146.52 |
| 6 | Q3 | 3196.68 |
| 6 | Q4 | 2930.48 |
| 7 | Q1 | 2878.96 |
| 7 | Q2 | 3687.85 |
| 7 | Q3 | 3608.33 |
| 7 | Q4 | 3288.26 |
| 8 | Q1 | 3178.23 |
| 8 | Q2 | 3939.69 |
| 8 | Q3 | 3680.11 |
| 8 | Q4 | 3516.65 |
| 9 | Q1 | 3354.76 |
| 9 | Q2 | 4490.02 |
| 9 | Q3 | 4678.97 |
| 9 | Q4 | 4148.56 |
| 10 | Q1 | 3995.07 |
| 10 | Q2 | 5178.43 |
| 10 | Q3 | 5010.64 |
| 10 | Q4 | 4453.38 |
| 11 | Q1 | 4306.70 |
| 11 | Q2 | 5321.93 |
| 11 | Q3 | 4888.10 |
| 11 | Q4 | 4554.65 |
| 12 | Q1 | 4176.79 |
| 12 | Q2 | 5125.40 |
| 12 | Q3 | 4962.65 |
| 12 | Q4 | 4917.63 |
| 13 | Q1 | 4542.60 |
| 13 | Q2 | 5284.71 |
| 13 | Q3 | 4817.43 |
| 13 | Q4 | 4634.50 |
