Suppose you choose a coin at random from an urn with 3 coins,
where coin i...
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Suppose you choose a coin at random from an urn with 3 coins,where coin i has P(H) = i/4. What is the pmf for your priordistribution of the probability of heads for the chosen coin? Whatis your posterior given 1 head in 1 flip? 2 heads in 2 flips? 10heads in 10 flips?Hint: Compute the odds for each coin first.
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For each of the three coins we are given here that PH coin 1 14 PH coin 2 24 PH coin 3 34 As each of the coin is to be randomly selected the probability for the three coins here is given as Pcoin 1 Pcoin 2 Pcoin 3 13 Using law of total probability we get here PH PH coin 1Pcoin 1 PH coin 2Pcoin 2 PH coin 3Pcoin 3 PH 1413 2413 3413 24 05 Therefore 05 is
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