t = 0 represents Q1 of last year. Please see the table below.
Please see the second row that explains the mathematics. We have to
forecast Ft for 4 quarters of next year and 1 quarter of
the following year. "t" corresponding to these periods is from t =
8 to t = 12.
Your answers are:
|
Quarter |
Forecast |
|
1 |
293.55 |
|
2 |
342.00 |
|
3 |
207.00 |
|
4 |
658.80 |
|
1 |
614.65 |
Please see the sequence below for further understanding. Cells
highlighted in yellow are your answer.
|
Year |
Quarter |
t |
Forecast Without Seasonality |
Relative/Seasonal Index |
Forecast With Seasonality |
|
|
|
Ft= 53 ? 4.3 x t + 3.3 x
t2 |
R |
R x Ft |
| Last
year |
1 |
0 |
53.00 |
0.95 |
61.75 |
|
2 |
1 |
52.00 |
0.9 |
57.60 |
|
3 |
2 |
57.60 |
0.45 |
32.40 |
|
4 |
3 |
69.80 |
1.2 |
106.80 |
| This
year |
1 |
4 |
88.60 |
0.95 |
109.25 |
|
2 |
5 |
114.00 |
0.9 |
135.00 |
|
3 |
6 |
146.00 |
0.45 |
87.30 |
|
4 |
7 |
184.60 |
1.2 |
296.40 |
|
Next Year |
1 |
8 |
229.80 |
0.95 |
293.55 |
|
|
2 |
9 |
281.60 |
0.9 |
342.00 |
|
|
3 |
10 |
340.00 |
0.45 |
207.00 |
|
|
4 |
11 |
405.00 |
1.2 |
658.80 |
|
Year after |
1 |
12 |
476.60 |
0.95 |
614.65 |
