This activity has the purpose of assessing the studentsknowledge how to make a time series forecast using quantitativemodels.
1. The following data represents the average “deliveryspeed” to fulfill customer’s orders in a hypothetical organization.In period 10, changes were made onthe fulfillment process, as a result of an improvement SixSigma initiative.
| Period | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Delivery Speed (Days) | 5 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Period | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| Delivery Speed (Days) | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
2.Explain if the change made in Period 10 was sound. 3.What is your forecast of delivery-speed in Period21. You have to choose a model (considerat least three models and using the MAD explain which is thebest.)
