To get published in an academic journal, you have to provesomething "interesting." As a result, most academics begin theirresearch by investigating hypotheses that, all else equal, areunlikely to be true. Suppose each research project begins with aresearch claim that has a 10% chance of being correct.
They then perform a study that satisfies the following twoproperties:
1) The probability that they correctly *find* an important result given that their *claim* is true is 50%2) The probability that they incorrectly *find* an important result given that their *claim* is false is 5%
If they find an important result they are published.What is the probability that their claim was true, giventhat they were published?
