Using the data provided:
Plot the data. What does the plot tell you about the
appropriateness of...
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Statistics
Using the data provided:
Plot the data. What does the plot tell you about theappropriateness of using a trend and seasonally adjusted model foryour data?
Develop a forecast model that incorporates both a trend andseasonal adjustment (even if its not necessarily there).
Develop a forecast for the four periods beyond your data.
Calculate a MAD and Bias based on the last 12 periods of knowndata. What do the MAD and bias indicate about your model?
Overall, are you satisfied with your model? If so, why? If not,suggest some things that could be done to improve your model.
data:
Year
Quarter
Revenue
1999
Qtr1
1,939
Qtr2
2,373
Qtr3
2,651
Qtr4
3,111
2000
Qtr1
3,187
Qtr2
3,634
Qtr3
3,702
Qtr4
3,738
2001
Qtr1
3,627
Qtr2
3,916
Qtr3
3,588
Qtr4
2,932
2002
Qtr1
2,931
Qtr2
3,556
Qtr3
3,812
Qtr4
4,085
2003
Qtr1
4,570
Qtr2
4,189
Qtr3
4,594
Qtr4
4,576
2004
Qtr1
5,245
Qtr2
6,276
Qtr3
6,558
Qtr4
7,420
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
Qtr1
5,245
4,570
2,931
3,627
3,187
1,933
Qtr2
6,276
4,189
3,556
3,916
3,634
2,373
Qtr3
6,558
4,594
3,812
3,588
3,702
2,651
Qtr4
7,429
4,576
4,085
2,932
3,738
3,111
Year
25,508
17,929
14,384
14,063
14,300
10,068
Answer & Explanation
Solved by verified expert
4.3 Ratings (745 Votes)
Plot of the Raw DataI dont find any seasonality effect in the data Definitelythere is a trend So my choice is Holts method We can implementHolts method in Minitab or any other software or in Excelspreadsheet I prefer ExcelAlpha 099Beta 01PeriodRevenueYtAtTtPeriodaheadForecastAbsolute ErrorAbsolute
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