When we toss a penny, experience shows that the probability(longterm proportion) of a head is close to 1-in-2. Suppose nowthat we toss the penny repeatedly until we get a head. What is theprobability that the first head comes up in an odd number of tosses(one, three, five, and so on)? To find out, repeat this experiment50 times, and keep a record of the number of tosses needed to get ahead on each of your 50 trials.
(a)
From your experiment, estimate the probability of a head on thefirst toss. What value should we expect this probability tohave?
b)
Use the expected value to estimate the probability that thefirst head appears on an odd-numbered toss.