for exponential smoothing: forecast =alpha*actual for last
month+(1-alpha)*forecast for last month
a)
|
|
company A |
|
company B |
          Quarter |
Forecast |
Forecast |
|
Forecast |
Forecast |
α = 0.20 |
α = 0.30 |
α = 0.20 |
α = 0.30 |
2009 Â Â Â I |
   |
   |
|
   |
   |
           II |
1.680 |
1.680 |
|
0.21 |
0.21 |
   Â
      III |
1.816 |
1.884 |
|
0.214 |
0.216 |
           IV |
1.695 |
1.682 |
|
0.213 |
0.214 |
2010
    I |
1.616 |
1.567 |
|
0.241 |
0.255 |
            II |
1.625 |
1.595 |
|
0.232 |
0.238 |
           III |
1.716 |
1.741 |
|
0.258 |
0.275 |
            IV |
1.635 |
1.611 |
|
0.280 |
0.303 |
2011
    I |
1.376 |
1.230 |
|
0.320 |
0.356 |
            II |
1.169 |
0.963 |
|
0.326 |
0.354 |
            III |
0.897 |
0.617 |
|
0.359 |
0.395 |
            IV |
0.543 |
0.171 |
|
0.389 |
0.430 |
2012
     I |
0.483 |
0.192 |
|
0.415 |
0.457 |
             II |
0.056 |
-0.361 |
|
0.394 |
0.413 |
            III |
0.119 |
-0.142 |
|
0.419 |
0.445 |
b-1)
|
|
MAD |
|
|
|
|
|
Company A |
Company B |
alpha=0.2 |
|
0.830 |
|
0.104 |
|
alpha=0.3 |
|
0.784 |
|
0.093 |
|
b-2)
Based upon MAD )0.3 performs better than an α of 0.2